Friday, March 14, 2008

GREGSKY'S EASTERN CONFERENCE NOTEBOOK: BUBBLE TEAMS - WHO'S HOT AND WHO'S NOT?

Ahh yes, you can feel it in the air. We are creeping up on playoff hockey time. A time when the upper echelons are fine-tuning their machines for the stretch run and division/conference titles while the bottom feeders are playing for pride, future paychecks and playing the spoiler role. But if you are a team in the middle, a bubble team, well, then this is a time where it comes down to do or die. For these teams the playoffs have already started. All of those close games that got away earlier in the season now come back to haunt you. It is time to put the pedal to the floor, leave everything on the ice from here on out only to be rewarded with a low playoff seed and have to face the tops in the conference. But that’s why you play the game. To earn a ticket to the dance where anything can happen and with any luck you can find yourself dancing with the prettiest girl.

For this installment of the Notebook, I will be looking at these bubble teams to try and determine which teams are poised to make it and which ones are running out of gas. From the looks of things, right now, there are 7 teams battling for 3 spots. With little to no chance of winning the division, each of these teams are solely focused on capturing one of those 3 spots. As of now, the Rangers, Bruins and Flyers are occupying the last three spots with the Sabres, Caps, Panthers and the Leafs on the outside looking in.

So, who’s Hot and who’s Not?

HOT : The Rangers are trying to take a foothold and claim the #6 spot. Going 8 – 0 – 2 in the last ten, they are a team clearly focused on making the playoffs. That #6 spot looks suitable for the Blueshirts as an opening round match up with the Canes would be a fine battle, but the way they have been playing lately could have them climbing up a few spots before it’s over.

NOT : The Bruins are currently taking up spot #7. This is a team that is fragile right now. Injuries have played a factor all year for this team and with little offence they have hung in there so far. But at this time of year hanging in there just isn’t good enough. When it should be time to surge, the B’s are stalling. Going 4 – 4 – 2 over the last ten games is putting them in a precarious position. They have dropped games against teams below them in the standings and if that wasn’t bad enough some of them were blowouts. Looking at the remaining schedule it won’t get any easier for the B’s and if they are not careful could very well be playing themselves out of the playoff picture.

HOT : The Flyers are residing in the 8th and final spot, picking up points in 7 of their last ten games and a chance to leap-frog the Bruins this weekend with a win. They are starting to turn it on at the right time and are playing hard-edged playoff style hockey. If you are going to beat this club you are going to have to pay the price because they refuse to give an inch. Look for them to claim one of the last 3 spots.

NOT : The Sabres are just on the other side of the line. So close, but yet so far away. Here we have a team within a sniff of making the playoffs and they go 2 –5 –3 in their last ten games. Worse yet, they gave points away to the Flyers and Rangers in that stretch. The Sabres, like the Bruins, are stalling at the wrong time. They sure could use Briere, Drury and Campbell now. This team looks like it is about to crash and burn because inconsistency won’t get the job done.

NOT : Speaking of inconsistency, the Caps are a tough team to figure out. Just when you think they are going to go on a roll, they let up on the gas. Just when you think they are done they turn it on. They are in a nice position right now and need to find that extra gear to push their way into the playoffs, but in order to do it they will have to battle for 60 minutes each game, something that has plagued them all year. Time however, is running short and there are a couple of teams breathing down their necks ready to climb over them if they continue to give away points. Look for Ovechkin to carry the load the rest of the way. He’s hungry, but is the rest of the team equally as hungry?

HOT: The Panthers have a bit of a new look since the trade deadline and collecting points in 8 of the last 10 shows that they still have hopes of making the dance. It won’t be easy by any means for the Panthers but the hope still lives and if they can continue the pace they just might climb over a few stumbling teams in front of them. They have had an up and down season, obviously the last 10 games have been an up, the trick is to avoid another down. Despite the current up swing; look for Jokinen to miss the playoffs again, but this time only by a fraction.

HOT : The Maple Leafs have been a team in turmoil all season, but just won’t go away. With all of the distractions and rumors and media pressures pounding them every step of the way, this team refuses to die. They are finding their playoff hopes still alive, but much like the Panthers have to find a way to sustain the current push. Going 7 – 2 – 1 over the last 10, the Leafs are coming together at the right time. The question remains if they have enough left in the tank to keep it going. With both the Bruins and Sabres starting to fold under the pressure there is a backdoor open, only I’m not sure they will go through it.

Monday, March 10, 2008

MISER'S WESTERN ROUNDUP

The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs are looming ahead. In the Western Conference, a couple of big deadline day moves have brought two teams closer to the front running Detroit Red Wings; while some prepared for the future by obtaining draft picks. Two teams, Calgary and Edmonton, were silent as the deadline came and went. Who won? Who lost?

SHARKS, STARS MAKE BIG MOVES

In the Pacific Division, two of the top three teams made big trades to upgrade their rosters. In San Jose, the Sharks acquired D Brian Campbell and a 7th round draft pick for RW Steve Bernier and a 1st round pick in the 2008 draft. The trade is sound for both clubs. Both players have five points in their first five games with their new clubs. Campbell is great at running the power play and has eats up ice time (averaging just over 25 minutes a night). If the Sharks can sign Campbell to a new contract (he becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1), Campbell will be a thorn in the side of his division rivals for years to come. If Campbell is nothing more than a rental, he still gives the Sharks a better shot at advancing in the playoffs. This move could be GM Doug Wilson’s master stroke, or his downfall if San Jose fails to advance.

Meanwhile, in Dallas, the GM duo of Les Jackson and Brett Hull engineered a deal to bring Conn Smythe winner Brad Richards in from Tampa Bay. The price was steep: for Richards and G Johan Holmqvist, the Stars let go of forwards, Jeff Halpern, Jussi Jokinen, G Mike Smith, and a 2009 draft pick. Richards, a Cup winner with Tampa, had been more noted lately for having the worst plus-minus rating over the past two seasons. That is not completely his fault, of course, but it did make some people wonder (including yours truly). Richards must have been happy about waiving his no-trade clause and moving to Texas… in his first game as a Star, Richards collected five assists in a 7-4 rout of Chicago. Personally, I hated to see Jokinen go – I think his career is on the rise (Note to Tampa: keep him at center instead of on a wing). The worst part, however, is letting go of Smith. Smitty has played so well in his first two seasons in the league, and provided Marty Turco with a solid safety net. Given Turco’s past playoff outings, it will be interesting to see if Turco can build upon last spring’s performance against Vancouver. Dallas lost the series in seven, with Turco winning three games by shutout. Should an injury befall Turco, Johan Holmqvist will man the net, which would probably mean yet another first-round ouster for Dallas. Yikes.

DEPTH DEALS

In Anaheim, the Ducks made deals with an eye on getting some insurance for injuries or underperformers. Anaheim obtained D-men Jay Leach (Tampa) and Marc-Andre Bergeron (NYI), as well as exchanging a 7th round pick with Los Angeles for G Jean-Sebastian Aubin. Leach and Bergeron will augment the blueline (with Bergeron providing insurance on the PP), while Aubin will probably backup J. F. Giguere come April. The offense took a hit last night, as Corey Perry went down after being cut by a skate in a 1-0 loss to Colorado. Perry, who was second on the team in scoring (29-25-54), will likely miss six weeks, meaning Anaheim will have to get through the first round, and perhaps part of the second, without him.

There is a reunion in Colorado. D Adam Foote was acquired from Columbus for conditional draft picks in 2008 and 2009. This, combined with the signing of Peter Forsberg, shows that Colorado wants to win now. The loss of draft picks could haunt them in the future, but that doesn’t seem to bother the Avalanche, who missed they playoffs last year by one point. Where are Deadmarsh, Ozolinsh, and Roy? Colorado also acquired D Ruslan Salei from Florida for Karlis Skrastins and a draft pick in a depth move.

Detroit gave two draft picks to Los Angeles for D Brad Stuart. Stuart will help a D-corps that has been a bit banged up. In another “homecoming” move, Darren McCarty was signed as free agent. Columbus traded Sergei Fedorov to Washington for a college defenseman (Ted Ruth of Notre Dame)…did the Wings even make a call to the Jackets? Vancouver traded a veteran grinder (Matt Cooke) for a younger, perhaps more offensively gifted, grinder (Matt Pettinger). Pettinger is physical, but has yet to show much more than fourth liner ability on offense.

STEAL OF A DEAL?

The Phoenix Coyotes and New York Rangers combined to deal five players. One of the Coyotes’ acquisitions was G Al Montoya, who they believe can be their tender of the future. Marcel Hossa (no, not THAT one) comes to the desert as well. In exchange, the Rangers got a draft pick and three guys (F Fredrik Sjostrom, LW Chris Gratton, and G David LeNeveu). Three or four years from now, this may be seen as the steal of the year. Or, we will never hear from these guys again.

ELSEWHERE

Minnesota got Chris Simon from the Isles for a 6th round pick… this will make Marian Gaborik feel better about his playoff chances?

St. Louis got a 4th line winger (Cam Janssen from New Jersey) and a 4th pick from the Rangers for two D-men (Bryce Salvador to NJD, Christian Backman to NYR).

Nashville hoped to improve their offense by getting Jan Hlavac from Tampa and Brandon Bochenski from Anaheim.

Chicago sent Martin Lapointe to Ottawa for a draft pick, and sent forward Tuomo Ruutu to Carolina for forward Andrew Ladd in a deal that gives each player a fresh start in a new town – a chance to retool and elevate their careers.

OBSERVATIONS

Detroit is still the class of the conference, but Dallas and San Jose have gained ground.

Anaheim’s chances of repeating took a hit, but never count the champion out.

Dallas must hope that Marty Turco – and his teammates – can get that first-round monkey off of their backs. IF they can, the sky is the limit. The team is a great mix of young and old that has survived injuries to their top two defenseman (Sergei Zubov and Philippe Boucher). Can they keep it up?

San Jose must find a way to lock up Brian Campbell.

Colorado must get Ryan Smyth healthy and keep him that way.

As long as Vancouver has Roberto Luongo, they must be respected.

Phoenix just might be the mystery guest in the playoffs; Minnesota just might be left scratching their heads as to how they missed the postseason.

It’s one more month until the playoffs: THE best time of the year!!!

Peace.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

YOU KNOW YOUR HAVING "ONE OF THOSE DAYS" WHEN....

Well folks, it seems to be one of those mornings. You know the kind I mean…where the coffee tastes like it was made using a hockey glove as a filter, but you just have to keep pouring it down your gullet because the dog woke you up hours too early doing the “pee-pee dance” at the door. The kind where you wake up your 10 year old daughter by crabbing at the dog while you let him out and she gives you a huge good morning hug and then tells you “Did Mom tell you? I have pink eye!” The kind of morning when you make a mad dash for the sink to sanitize your face after the deadly pink eye hug with Windex or Comet or whatever is closest, only to have the toxic coffee churning through your system pick right then to act like Ex-lax. Yes that kind, where you find yourself doing “the dance” outside the bathroom door because your 14 year old son is in there doing "God only knows what" for the next twenty minutes and you are left with nothing but time to kick yourself in the ass for not building that 2nd bathroom and wondering if the boy made the coffee. Yeah baby! It’s one of those mornings.

So forgive me if the rest of this post seems to carry a “tone”, but if you’ve ever had one of those mornings, I’m sure you’ll understand. Thank God there is hockey. Sometimes it seems to be the only shred of normalcy I get all day. My reward for going through the “Morning From Hell” is everyone leaves and it’s just myself and the Bruins vs. Caps game that was recorded last night. Ahhh….time to relax and enjoy. Right? Wrong! It seems that the timer on the DVR was set for 7:00am and is currently recording a fishing show. ARRRRRGH!! How could this day get any worse? Well then Spanky, I’ll tell you how. The game that didn’t get recorded only featured the Caps burning the B’s for 10 goals in which Ovechkin nets a first period hat trick to push him over 50, Backstrom passes Kane with a 4 point night and my 3 favorite former Hershey Bears Green, Schultz and Fehr had an awesome game. To top it off I also missed Brashear mixing it up with Chara and Thornton. “What the…..??” The cat just hacked up something unidentifiable on the carpet! Just great! Maybe at this point I should call in sick to work out of fear of getting my balls caught in a machine or something equally as horrific.

Well I guess I should look on the bright side. Things could be much worse. I mean at least I’m not Tim Thomas. So I’ve got that going for me. I wonder how his day is going. Anyway, I’m planning on bouncing back from my rocky start and I’m sure that Tim Thomas is planning the same thing only he’s hoping that Ference and Ward play better in front of him tonight. My biggest worry left in front of me for the day is making sure the timer on the DVR is set right to record tonight’s game and being extra vigilant not to get my balls caught in a machine at work. I guess when faced with days like this all you can do is laugh. Enjoy!